V endredi February 11, 2011, 17h, a time marked a milestone in history of Egypt. In a short televised speech, the Vice-President Souleymane Omar announced that the President of Egypt Hosni Mubarak resigned from office. The previous course a televised speech, Hosni Mubarak had already begun the movement by announcing the transfer of much of his powers to Vice President Souleymane.
An honorable way out.
During the day Friday, the question was not whether Mubarak would leave but actually find him an honorable way out to prevent the situation from degenerating. At the heart of this transition, the Egyptian army. Since Nasser's role is paramount. Egyptian leaders are all from its ranks of Anwar El-Sadat, Mubarak course but also the vice-president Souleymane. The President of the Supreme Military Council of the army, to whom the authority has been delegated, is the minister of defense pillar of the Mubarak regime. In short, all who have come from the army.
The Egyptian army has also played a major role in the "Revolution" by failing to draw the crowd, but contain the protesters and ensuring their safety. The army has a special place in the country and its role will be decisive. Already, she announced she would not confiscate the power and ensure the country's democratic transition. But precisely what transition?
Transition theocratic or democratic transition?
For now, the army has not dissolved the current executive for good reason, it is, as stated above, almost entirely composed of people who are from the army. The other explanation would maintain some stability, essential in these troubled times. In the immediate future, therefore, the army is responsible for " manage daily affairs ", otherwise the continuity of the state. It should then ensure the elections " free and democratic . The problem is who will be able to provide the power and govern in the post-Mubarak.
The Muslim Brotherhood, banned and dissolved under Mubarak still exist but their objective is quite different from that of the former president. Objective of the allies to power of Nasser, these circumstances it's allies are quickly disconnected because they did not want a secular state but a theocracy. Objective unchanged since. Faced with this, no serious or credible alternative not emerged. ElBaradei, widely known outside of Egypt and former Nobel peace only enjoys little credibility among the Egyptian people for whom it remains largely an unknown. The other options do not really exist since Mubarak had done everything to stifle any opposition. The risk of having a theocracy is real although it is probably overestimated by the West.
foreign reactions.
Following his departure, the foreign reactions were numerous. EU leaders welcomed the democratic transition. In terms chosen, Nicolas Sarkozy and his other counterparts congratulated the Egyptian people for his courage and desire for freedom.
In Israel, it is the mistrust that prevails. After all, Tel Aviv, we met this president very well, authoritarian, but which had managed to maintain peace at all costs between Egypt and Israel.
Peace in the Middle East is the crucial issue against which the Egyptian Revolution will be evaluated. The first American statements called elsewhere, Egypt to respect the signed peace agreements with Israel.
It is thus particularly interesting to see in what terms, Barack Obama spoke following the resignation of Hosni Mubarak. Very vindictive since the early events in Egypt, American diplomacy had to hold back a little against the discontent aroused his statements from Arab leaders who have long outsourced their security to Uncle Sam in exchange for their cooperation and who enjoy little of being let go by the very people they supported, mostly against their public opinion.
In his statement, therefore, Obama uses strong words and shows himself willing lyrical but at no time did said bad word against Hosni Mubarak. Sign that even in bad times, America recognizes the important role the former president of political stability in the Middle East.
Conclusion.
In the end, everything changes and nothing changes. The Egyptian army retains a dominant role, the Western democracies, conservative, want to avoid is letting the Middle East engulfed in flames. Israel, worried more than ever, keep hold of the M-16 and the finger not far from the red button. The leaders of other Arab countries, not reassured by a penny for the evolution of the Egyptian situation waver between tough on as Algeria or make concessions such as Jordan to stay in power. In sum, in this region than anywhere else, nothing is simple and very clever is the one who can predict developments in the region. But one thing is certain, nothing will be as before and a fresh wind of freedom blows over a region that has been too long deprived, which is not a bad thing.
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